Mr. Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
After showing higher level weakness on Friday, Nifty shifted into a range bound action on Monday and closed the day lower by 14 points. After opening on a negative note, the market slipped into further weakness in the early part of the session. Intraday upside recovery has emerged from near the support of 16450 levels, but the market later shifted into a range movement for better part of the session. The opening downside gap has been filled completely.
A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow. Technically, this pattern indicate high wave type candle formation. Normally, a formations of such patterns after a reasonable upmove or down moves calls for reversal on either side. But, having formed this pattern amidst a range movement, the predictive value could be less.
Nifty has sustained above the cluster supports of around 16400-16450 levels as per change in polarity and daily 10 and 20 period EMA. As long as the area of 16400 level is protected, there is a possibility of upside bounce in the market.
We observe broader high low range movement around 16800-16450 levels in the last one week. Having sustained above the lower range of 16450 levels, there is a possibility of Nifty moving towards the upper range of 16800 levels in the short term.