Time frame: Three months
Derivatives & Quantitative Outlook
Broader markets have remained under pressure amid continued cash based selling by FIIs. While underperformance was especially visible in the banking and FMCG space, stocks from technology and metal remained largely immune to the ongoing volatility. We believe the Nifty will move into a consolidation phase where stocks like ITC could be the next major mover. It is likely to retest its October highs in the coming weeks.
ITC has seen significant closure of open interest where the rest of the market is witnessing continued short additions. Both headline indices saw significant short additions with unabated FIIs' selling pressure. Meanwhile, ITC has been witnessing closure of open interest since December series with current open interest one of the lowest seen in almost a year. Since the February series, OI has declined more than 40% in the stock, suggesting ongoing short covering.
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