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Commodities
Commodity market outlook for the week starting January 13, 2014 - Mr. Vivek Gupta- Director Research - CapitalVia Global Research Limited
Posted On : 2014-01-12 01:27:55( TIMEZONE : IST )
Precious metal:
Gold prices moved up on Friday after moving in a range as mixed data coming from US and China kept the prices of Gold in range. Markets fear that a strong U.S. jobs report could prompt the Federal Reserve to further reduce its bond-buying stimulus. Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowered its 2014 average Gold price forecast to $1,150, citing an uncertain macro-economic environment and lack of investment demand. Gold prices are expected to move lower after showing some upside however, positive US claim data can push the prices down.
Over all, MCX Gold February future is in consolidation and sustaining in range. For the coming week 28250/28000 will act as a major support whereas 29060/29371will act as a major resistance level in MCX Gold February future. For the next week in MCX Gold, trader can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Gold February future sustain below the levels of 28670 then it could test the levels 28510 /28250.
Technically, MCX Silver March futures is consolidate and sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week 44500/45740 will act as major resistance levels where as 42435/39931 will act as major support in MCX Silver March futures. For the next week in MCX Silver futures, traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Silver March futures sustains below 43600 then it could test the levels of 42435/ 40765.
Energy:
US crude oil moved lower further as higher inventory stocks along with drop in demand from US. Saudi Arabia produced 9.819 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in December, up from 9.745 million bpd in November. Crude oil prices are expected to remain in a range as investors were eyeing U.S. Non farm payrolls data to be released later in the day for further indications on the level of the job market's recovery.
For the coming week 5400/5100 will act as major supports levels whereas 5900/6100 will act as major resistance in MCX Crude oil January futures. For the next week, trader can go for sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Crude January future sustain below 5700 levels then it could test the levels 5570/5410.
Base Metal:
Copper prices remained down for the day as poor Chinese CPI data pushed lower the demand sentiment for copper. China's Trade Balance moved down to 25.6B vs 33.8B prev, concern over Chinese economy losing its steam is rising. Chinese imports of copper and iron more likely fell in December from the month before due to a cash crunch and as growth momentum slowed. We expect Copper prices to move down along with other base metals as poor Chinese trade data and slowing demand can push the copper prices further down.
Trend of MCX Copper February future is in consolidation and also sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week, it could face major resistance of 460/475 whereas 439/428 could be a major support in MCX Copper. For the next week trader may follow sell on higher levels strategy, if MCX Copper future sustain below 453 levels then it could test the level of 446/439.
