Specialty chemicals - Price trend in Oct-20 - ICICI Securities

R-22 export realisation dipped further to Rs163 in Oct'20 (down 11.4% QoQ), which is the lowest price since Dec'17, and this has come despite phase-down 2, which has cut production by 25% from base line from 1st Jan, 2020. R-22 export volumes were down 26.2% in 10MCY20, which means Q3FY21 will have >20% volume decline. BOPET-PTA/MEG has been softening from peak, and was Rs73 in Oct'20, down 9.5% from Rs81 in Q2FY21, but BOPP-PP spreads have been strong at Rs69 (vs Rs60 in Q2FY21). Lauryl alcohol prices have been stable at Rs91. Pigment volumes have been picking up smart with 6% YoY growth in Oct'20, which should benefit Sudarshan Chemical, in our view.

(Note: All prices stated are in Rs/kg; Q3FY21 data is only for Oct'20)

SRF Ltd: R-22 realisation under pressure; BOPET spread dips

- R-22 prices dip 11.4% QoQ and 11.1% YoY to Rs163 in Q3FY21, but for the month of Oct'20, realisation was down 12.6% YoY. Export volumes were down 16% YoY to 1,420te in Oct'20. Phase-down 2 (25%) has hurt volumes, and in 10months (CY20), volumes were down 26.2%. We expect volumes in Q3FY21 also to be down by >20%. Fluorspar (acid spar) price is down 4.0% QoQ / 14.3% YoY to Rs29. R-22 spread (to fluorspar and chloroform) was Rs103 vs Rs117 in Q2FY21.

- MDC (methylene chloride) prices shrunk 8.8% QoQ / 20.0% YoY to Rs30. It was also due to fall in chorine and methanol prices.

- NTCF prices dipped 10.8% QoQ / 1.8% YoY to Rs165. Caprolactam prices were down 4.1% QoQ and 29.1% YoY to Rs77. NTCF-caprolactam spread fell to Rs88 vs Rs105 in Q2FY21.

- BOPET prices were down 5.0% QoQ, while they were up 0.7% YoY at Rs113. PTA prices rose 2.6% QoQ / down 28.9% YoY to Rs34 while MEG prices rose 10.9% QoQ / down 17.5% YoY to Rs29. BOPET-PTA/MEG spread fell 9.5% QoQ while it was up 25.5% YoY to Rs73 (vs Rs81 in Q2FY21). BOPET-PTA/MEG spread has hit Rs85 in the month of Jun'20, and thus, it is down 14% from the recent peak.

- BOPP prices rose 7.7% QoQ and 7.8% YoY to Rs135 while polypropylene prices rose 2.2% QoQ / fell 4.7% YoY to Rs66. BOPP-PP price spread was at Rs69, up 23.6% YoY and 13.6% QoQ. BOPP-PP spread rose to the peak of Rs71 in the month of Apr'20, and thus, it is down only 3.8% from the recent peak.

Sudarshan Chemical (SCIL): Organic pigment prices dipped 1.3% QoQ

- Organic pigment prices were down 1.3% QoQ and 0.5% YoY to Rs483 vs Rs489 in Q2FY21. Organic pigments are inclusive of all colours including CPC. Their export volumes rose 6.4% YoY to 9.9kte in the month of Oct'20.

- Azo pigment mixture prices fell 7.6% QoQ and 23.1% YoY to Rs386 vs Rs417 in Q2FY21.

- Inorganic pigment prices fell 3.5% QoQ; however, it is up 1.0% YoY to Rs90 vs Rs93 in Q2FY21.

Galaxy Surfactants (GSL): Lauryl alcohol prices stable

- Lauryl alcohol prices were at Rs91, down 0.3% QoQ but up 10.8% YoY, vs Rs92 in Q2FY21.

Vinati Organics

- Ibuprofen prices dipped 23.8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY to Rs1,985 (vs Rs2,605 in Q2FY21).

- IBB prices were down 10.5% QoQ and 15% YoY to Rs121 vs Rs135 in Q2FY21.

Atul Ltd

- 2,4-D prices were down 0.3% QoQ and 2.4% YoY to Rs155 (vs Rs155 in Q2FY21). Export volumes were down 23% YoY at 1,498te for the month of Oct'20.

- Para cresol prices were down 15.4% QoQ and 24.5% YoY at Rs145. Export volumes fell 42% YoY to 783e in the month of Oct'20.

- Epoxy prices rose 7.7% QoQ and 4.8% YoY to Rs168. Export volumes dropped 14% YoY to 1,896te in the month of Oct'20.

- Resorcinol prices were down 6.9% QoQ and 4.0% YoY to Rs635. Export volumes were up 70% YoY to 273te in the month of Oct'20 on low base.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals

- PTFE prices rose 0.9% QoQ and 4.5% YoY to Rs689 (vs Rs683 in Q2FY21). PTFE (to fluorspar) spread rose 1.5% QoQ and 7.3% YoY to Rs614 (vs Rs605 in Q2FY21). Export volumes were up 4% YoY to 900te in the month of Oct'20.

Source : Equity Bulls

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