FX Monitor - May 20, 2020 - Geojit

- Indian currency ended at 75.66 yesterday, up 25 paise against its previous close of 75.91.
- FBIL set the reference rate for USDINR at 75.9345 and Euro at 82.1910.
- US dollar struggled as investors shifted focus towards reports of a possibility of Covid-19 vaccine.
- US Fed Chair in his testimony said "committed to use full range of tools" to support the economy.
- In economic news, US housing starts plunged in Apr to its lowest since February 2015.
- FOMC is set to release its minutes from recent meeting later today.
- Euro edged higher against USD while UK's pound staged a recovery.
- ECB will announce its minutes from the recent meeting on Friday.
- Bank of Japan to hold an unscheduled monetary policy meeting this Friday as deadly virus hits economic growth.
- PBOC will give an update on its loan prime rate on Wednesday.

USDINR Outlook

Indian currency reversed from its three day losing streak to close higher by 25 paise tracking the gains in the domestic equity markets and depreciating American currency overseas. However, the investors also kept eyes on the capital outflows and rising oil prices. Local unit today opened at 75.71 a dollar and made an intraday high and low of 75.63 and 75.79 during the day. Rupee finally ended the trading at 75.66 against its previous close of 75.91. On Monday, Indian unit depreciated by 33 paise.

USD fell as the investors waited the outcome of Fed Chairman's testimony. More countries opening up and news of positive results in coronavirus vaccine trial also weighted in the currency. FIIs continued to be sellers in the capital market segment; sold shares worth Rs 1328.31cr on 19 May as per the exchange's provisional figures. DIIs, on the other end were buyers to the tune of Rs 1659.74cr for the same period. Oil prices continued its rise as Junefront month contracted yesterday and on the recent API data showing draw in crude oil inventories. Apart from coronavirus development, key speeches and economic data, the markets will also focus on the China/s annual parliament meeting starting from May 21 to get cues on any stimulus plan announcement.

For USDINR, 75.86 and 76.12 may act as a crucial level in the upside while 75.44 and 75.28 will act as major support levels.

Source : Equity Bulls

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