Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuité Ratings & Research on the March IIP and April CPI

On CPI:

"Even though the data for April CPI are severely constrained given the limited exercise for data collection, an overall inflation of 5.5% YoY was recorded in the month. Since core inflation has become insignificant at this time, food inflation is the primary concern recorded at 6.8% YoY. On a month on month basis, the primary inflating categories among the food classification include, vegetables (+7.2%), fruits, (+5.2%) and pulses (+6.6%). Until lockdown is lifted and logistics bottlenecks are addressed, the risks of higher food inflation will remain, taking the overall CPI number well above the RBI threshold of 4%."

On IIP:

"The March 2020 IIP print does not only reflect the impact of the disruptive Covid lockdown which started in stages from mid month but also the severity of the economic slowdown that had already gripped India. Even though all segments and categories have shown contraction, the 20.6% drop in manufacturing output yoy is a highlight.The sectors like automobile (-49.6%), electrical equipment (-31%), computer hardware and optical equipment (-41.7%) are clearly indicative of a broader slowdown aggravated by the lockdown. It therefore didn't come as a surprise that capital goods segment contracted by a sharp 35.6% and consumer durables by 33.1%. Overall, industrial activity contracted by 0.7% in FY20. Needless to say that the figures are expected to be significantly worse not only in the month of April but till H1FY21."

Source : Equity Bulls

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