India: Monsoon Tracker: Normal again - Kotak

Progress of monsoon: normal monsoon

- Till July 19, cumulative rainfall was 2.6% above normal with the weekly rainfall 11.4% above normal. On a regional cumulative basis, most of India remained in normal to excess rainfall with parts of east India and south India remaining deficient. Out of the 36 sub-divisions across India, till date, seven have received excess rainfall, 25 have received normal rainfall, and four have received deficient rainfall.

* Retail food price momentum: increase in vegetables' prices

- Average weekly price levels indicate that food prices have fallen over last week. Vegetable prices fell 1.7% while pulses prices fell by 0.2%. Cereal prices fell 0.3% while oils and fats prices were flat over last week in the week ending July 17. We note that this is based on Department of Consumer Affairs daily/weekly data and should not be assumed as the official retail inflation data.

* Progress of sowing: acreage increases over last year

- As of July 14, 2017, the total Kharif acreage is 7.9% higher than the same period last year. Rice sowing is 4.5% higher at 12.6 mn hectares. Oilseed acreage is 10.2% lower at 10.4 mn hectares and pulses acreage at 7.5 mn hectares is 23.8% higher than last year's. Coarse cereals' acreage is 14.4% higher at 11.3 mn hectares. Sugarcane and cotton acreages are at 4.8 mn hectares (45 mn hectares last year) and 9.1 mn hectares (7.4 mn hectares last year) respectively.

* Reservoir levels: deficient across most parts of India

- Reservoir levels remained negative compared to long term average levels. Larger river basins of Ganga, Indus and Godavari are in surplus while Mahanadi, Krishna, and Narmada, are in deficit. Overall, reservoirs and basins are around 14% below long term average for week ending July 20.

Source : Equity Bulls

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