INDIAN MONSOON UPDATE: Cumulative rainfall deficiency declines to 3% on August 23

- Overall rainfall deficiency in the country as a whole declined to 3% for the period June 1 to August 23.

- Temporarily, recent bouts of rainfall have been above normal reducing the cumulative deficiency for the season.

- Spatially, all regions except the east and north-east continues to register near normal monsoon. Importantly the deficient eastern region has started receiving rainfall.

- According to forecast by IMD, fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur in Indo-Gangetic plains, northern plains and coastal region. The extended forecast upto August 28 indicates widespread rainfall activity in the eastern, north-eastern region and the west coast.

- According to the International Research Institute (IRI), US, north-west India would continue to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall in the current week.

- Significantly, IMD in their updated outlook for second half (August – September) have predicted 107% of long period average (LPA) rainfall with a model error of ±7%. IMD has stuck to its earlier estimate of 102% of the LPA for the whole season. Spatially, the three regions (viz., Northwest India, Central India and South Peninsula) is also likely to be within the normal limits. However, the season rainfall over Northeast India is likely to be below normal.

- Moreover, IMD saw the emergence of a weak La Nina conditions in mid June. IMD's latest model forecasts indicate very high probability (about 80%) for the La Nina conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

- Significantly, Kharif sowing as on August 13, 2010 have covered 85% of normal area sown in the season which is 10% higher (11.6% for area under foodgrain) over the corresponding period of 2009. Water stock in 81 major reservoirs increased to 67.05 BCM which is 26% higher than the previous year's level and 1% higher than the 10-year average.

Source : Equity Bulls

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