Gold and Crude Oil - July 7, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices slightly recovered on Friday, with the gold price at Comex trading up by 0.10% at $1916 per ounce. Gold August future contract at MCX is trading up by 0.22% at Rs 58525 per 10 grams.

Gold price hovered near its lower end range after it retreated from the day's high and closed down by 0.23% in the previous session on the back of stronger than anticipated US macro data showing signs of resilience in the labour market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening. Following the release of the data, US Treasury yields skyrocketed; the policy-sensitive two-year rate surged to a 16-year high before ending below 5.0% in the previous session. This had a negative impact on gold prices.

Investors will now look to US nonfarm payrolls data to be released later today for a more comprehensive view of the US labour market. Better-than-estimated data will trigger further downside in gold prices. On the technical front, Comex gold has immediate support at $1893/oz; below that, it may correct to the $1870 level, and it has resistance at $1935/oz. MCX Gold August future has support at Rs 57700 and resistance at Rs 58650.

Crude oil prices traded higher on Friday, with the benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading up by 0.09% at $71.95 per barrel and on track for a second weekly gain after OPEC and its alliance leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia tightened supplies and drop in US crude stockpiles. According to government data, US oil stockpiles fell for the third week in a row, falling by 1.5 million barrels to reach their lowest level since late January. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia increased the price of its crude for export to Asia after pledging to prolong its output restraints for an additional month.

We expect crude oil prices to stay on a bullish trajectory in the short term. On the technical side, NYMEX crude oil is forming a higher top and higher bottom in the hourly time frame, and it has first resistance at $72.60. If it surpasses this barrier, it will rally towards the $73.65 level. On the flip side, it has immediate support at 70.57. MCX Crude Oil July contract has resistance at Rs 6070 and support at Rs 5880.

Source : Equity Bulls

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Gold CrudeOil HDFCSecurities Commodities