Mr. Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
After showing range bound movement with positive bias in the last few sessions, Nifty witnessed steep decline on Wednesday and closed the day lower by 189 points. After opening with a negative note, the market continued its weakness in the early to mid part of the session. Intraday upside recovery attempt of mid part has failed to sustain and Nifty finally closed near the lows.
A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart that indicates downside breakout of the recent sideways range movement in the market. After the downside breakout of ascending trend line support on 23rd Dec, the market showed gradual pullback rally in the next 6-7 sessions and broken down from the highs on Wednesday from near the resistance of said up trend line.
The negative chart pattern of lower tops and bottoms is intact and further weakness from here could drag index down to the lower bottom in the near term. Nifty on the weekly chart is indicating a possible completion of lower top near the trend line resistance around 18250 levels.
Conclusion: The short term trend of Nifty seems to have reversed down after a small pull back rally. Further weakness from here could take Nifty down to the recent swing low of 17775 levels in the short term. Any pull back rally could find resistance around 18150 levels.