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Market Commentary
Rupee Wrap - March 31, 2022 - Reliance Securities
Posted On : 2022-03-31 20:36:03( TIMEZONE : IST )
Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities
The Indian Rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday and ended weak for the month of March.
The Rupee ended at 75.79 per dollar this Thursday from 75.91 on Wednesday.
On the day, it advanced 0.2%, while depreciating by 0.6% in the month of March.
However, the Rupee weakened by 3.7%, this fiscal year from 73.11 close in the previous year.
This Thursday, the local unit was helped by the weakness of the crude oil prices, while Asian currencies were mixed ahead of key U.S. inflation data tonight.
Meanwhile, India's fiscal deficit in the first 11 months of this financial year that ends today totalled 13.17 trillion rupees, versus 14.06 trillion rupees in the comparable year-earlier period, government data showed.
Fiscal deficit for April-February was 82.7% of the government's revised estimate for this financial year. The deficit was 76% of budget aim in the same period last year.
NDF is at 75.69/75 this Thursday evening vs a close at 75.79 on Wednesday.
Indian bond yields ended higher on Thursday with the 6.54% ending at 6.84% against 6.78% close on Wednesday.
Investors will look to cues from data tonight. Current Account GDP, Balance of Payments, Current Account balance and Trade Balance are expected out today.
Indian currency and Fixed Income markets are shut tomorrow on account of Annual Bank closing.
Technically, the USDINR Spot pair has settled above an important intraday pivot of 75.76 levels and a sustained trade above could push the pair to the resistance zone at 75.86-75.92. However, a trade below could pull the pair back to the support zone at 75.69-75.59.
The U.S. Dollar recouped some of its losses this Thursday evening in Asian trade as investors await data tonight.
PCE price index, fed favoured inflation gauge and jobless claims data are scheduled tonight.
Technically, if Dollar Index trades above $98.05 it could witness a bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at $98.40-$98.60. However, a trade below could pull the Index to the support zone at $97.85-$97.50.
