We attended the Analyst Day of Bharti Airtel.
- The management reiterated the call for higher ARPU, another tariff hike by CY22 end and a couple more in the next few years (albeit inflationary trend, competitive stance and affordability a lower end could be a key deterrent in the near term, in our view). It outlined that US$3,3 (Rs. 250) ARPU could propel RoCEs to 20% vs. 6% in FY21 at US$2.2 ARPU. It indicated that all heavy lifting in terms of capex is done. It also termed itself 5G ready with trails done, successful testing of use cases, 5G core & infra ready with only implication being on higher radio capex in near term, albeit with no major change in capex in three-year period from current levels
- Identified broadband to be area of focus with home pass expansion from 16 million to 40 million by 2025 through own and LCO model of expansion
- It outlined emerging products under Enterprise such as Data Centre, IoT, Security, Cloud, Communication Platform as Service (CPaaS) and Network as a Service (NaaS) as another key area of growth (current cumulative market size of Rs. 36000 crore and ~25%+ CAGR ahead)
Key triggers for future price performance
- Tariff hike flow through to boost Airtel's India ARPU, India EBITDA by 20%, 30%, respectively, from pre-hike levels
- Relative market share gain from VIL, given its stressed balance sheet and long term potential driven by growth opportunity from 5G & Enterprise
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