Rupee Wrap - March 25, 2022 - Reliance Securities

Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

The Indian Rupee appreciated on Friday against the U.S. Dollar, tracking the fall of the oil prices and marginally weaker greenback.

However, the local unit ended weaker for the week largely due to the volatility in crude oil prices which dampened sentiment for risk assets in the region.

The Rupee ended at 76.20 this Friday, compared with 76.37 close on Thursday.

For the week, the rupee weakened 0.5%, compared with a rise of about 1% last week.

We might witness Rupee appreciating further next week towards 76.00 levels as foreign-currency inflows are expected next week, which usually is seen at the end of the financial year.

However, investors will remain wary of the situation in Eastern Europe and escalation of tension there will push oil higher and in turn keep appreciating bias limited.

NDF is trading at 76.19/25 this Friday evening vs. a close at 76.28 on Thursday.

Indian bond yields fell marginally on Friday but strengthened in the week as aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve push U.S. bond yields higher and weighed on sentiments back home.

Moreover, risks remain elevated in the domestic markets as crude oil prices remained firm this week.

The benchmark 6.54% ended at 6.81% against 6.83% close yesterday.

Technically, if the USDINR Spot pair trades below the 21-Daily Moving Average at 76.26 level it could witness a bearish momentum up to the support zone at 76.07-75.90. A trade above could push the pair to the resistance zone at 76.40-76.50.

The U.S. Dollar is trading marginally weaker this Friday evening in Asian trade.

Technically, if Dollar Index trades below $98.80 it could witness a bearish momentum up to the support zone at $98.60-98.40. However, a trade above could push the Index to the resistance zone at $98.90-$99.20.

Source : Equity Bulls

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