Acuité expects expect FY22 GDP growth at 9.5% albeit with some downside risks

Omicron holds down the AMEP index

But a rapid decline in infections will enable economy to recoup its lost momentum

The year 2022 commenced on a sombre note with India witnessing the emergence of third Covid wave amidst a rapid global proliferation of Omicron variant. The surge in infections prompted many nations to impose lockdown restrictions and subsequently, forced some of the states in India to reimpose mobility restrictions.

Says Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuité Ratings & Research "Expectedly, Omicron has led to a fresh dent in domestic economic activities which was also reflected in our proprietary AMEP (Acuité Macroeconomic Performance) monthly index which eased to 112.2 in Jan-22 from 115.0 in Dec-21. From growth perspective, the index contracted sequentially by 2.5% MoM in Jan-22 from an expansion of 3.3% in Dec-21. However, on an encouraging note, the magnitude of the adverse impact has been much lower as compared to the previous pandemic waves given less severity of infections amidst robust vaccination coverage, prevailing level of seroprevalence, improvement in medical and healthcare facilities and better management of supply chain logistics."

Link to the report

Source : Equity Bulls

Keywords

AcuiteRatings GDP India Forecast