Copper - Weekly Wrap - Sep 25, 2021 - Reliance Securities

Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

Copper markets had an eventful week.

Prices fell initially half of the week the market was also unsettled by a debt crisis at troubled property developer China Evergrande Group.

Evergrande has been scrambling to raise funds to pay lenders, suppliers and investors, with regulators warning that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if not stabilised.

Meanwhile, the dollar recovered initially amid safe haven appeal for the greenback due to the prospect of a debt default at China property developer Evergrande Group.

Additionally, copper prices were also under pressure, after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at plans to taper its stimulus programme that raised worries of slowing recovery in the world's biggest economy.

However, after the initial sell-off, prices recovered by the end of the week on relief that China's debt-burdened Evergrande may pay interest on a domestic bond, easing fears that the property giant's troubles might hit the global economy.

Additionally, Yangshan copper premium rose to $108 a tonne, its highest since Aug. 23, indicating rising demand to import the metal into top consumer China, as Chinese bonded warehouse stocks fell to their one-year low of 250,500 tonnes.

OUTLOOK

Looking ahead, copper could continue to remain under pressure staring next week as uncertainty will continue to linger about potential risks from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group.

Evergrande has yet to make a statement on a dollar-bond interest payment that was due this week.

Global market unease about contagion from Evergrande has ebbed, but it remains unclear if Beijing will manage the fallout from any potential default at the word's most-indebted developer.

Additionally, prices could also remain under pressure as the prospect of tighter monetary policy could spur a global selloff in riskier asset classes like copper and other base metals.

The important macroeconomic data releases next week are U.S GDP, Core Durable Goods and keenly tracked PCE price index by the Federal Reserve.

Apart from data from U.S. markets could also look to cues from China.

China will release manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI next week ahead of the holiday in the 1st week of October.

Technically, LME 3M copper could continue to remain within the trading band of $8930-$9600 in the coming week.

Domestically, MCX September contract could trade within the trading band of 691.25-732.90 in the coming week.

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Source : Equity Bulls

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