Gold & Silver - Sep 4, 2021 - Reliance Securities

Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

RECAP

Prices were range bound this week.

Initially prices rose supported by a fall in the dollar.

The Dollar during the week after a dovish speech from Jerome Powell last week and after weak data during the whole.

A report on the U.S. labour market missed expectations by a wide margin, while U.S. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August as worries about soaring COVID-19 infections and higher inflation dimmed the outlook for the economy.

However, after the brief uptick, prices moved lower as investors showed caution in the run-up to the release of a key U.S. jobs report later tonight.

OUTLOOK

The key trigger for prices for the next few days will be tonight's nonfarm payroll data.

Till the data markets could remain range bound.

The Labour Department's non-farm payrolls report for August is expected to show 728,000 jobs were created, according to a Reuters poll.

If the number is weaker than the poll, we could see some upside in bullion and vice versa.

On the charts, ahead of data, LBMA spot gold could remain within the range $1800 to 1820/ounce. After the data, if there is a big negative surprise on the data, prices could test $1850. At the same if the data is better than expected and better than July number, we could witness a fall towards $1750 levels.

If the number are in line with expectations markets could trade within a broad range of $1775-1845 next week before the September Fed meeting.

On the domestic front, MCX October could remain within the range Rs. 46970 to Rs. 47150 ahead of the data. After the data, markets will track overseas prices. Important resistance is at Rs. 47300 and a break above will push prices to Rs. 47600. At the same time, important support is at Rs. 46775 and a break below could pull prices to Rs. 46600.

Economic calendar is thin next week, but the major trigger point could come from the European Central Bank Meeting (ECB) next week.

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Source : Equity Bulls

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