Anindya Banerjee, DVP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
Over this year, risk-off events have not been sustained beyond 24-48 hours. The last one was no exception. After a brief sell-off in global equity markets On Monday, the risk-on mood is back strongly. Equity markets are higher and the US Dollar Index is trading lower. Asian currencies are also gaining ground against the US Dollar. Add to that lumpy FDI flows.
USD INR spot touched an intra-day low of 74.33, the lowest level since 5th July. However, alleged intervention from RBI pulled it back towards 74.47 by close of trading, still down 15 paise for the day. NSE USDINR July futures are also trading 16 paise up from their intra-day low of 74.36, currently at 74.51, down 19 paise for the day. All eyes on the ECB meeting tonight. Over the near term, USDINR may continue to oscillate within a range of 74.20-74.60, bracketed by RBI's demand for $ and risk on mood globally.