Reliance Industries - Company Update - AGM takeaways - HDFC Securities

Mr. Harshad Katkar, Institutional Research Analyst, HDFC Securities and Mr. Nilesh Ghuge, Institutional Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Our ADD rating on RIL with a price target of INR 2,280 /sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition and newer revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses.

Oil to chemicals (O2C): At the AGM, the chairman announced a Capex of INR 600bn over the next three years in the O2C business. This Capex will be used to set up four giga factories: (1) solar photovoltaic giga factory, (2) advanced energy storage giga factory, (3) electrolyser giga factory, and (4) fuel cell giga factory. Towards the infrastructure requirement and materials to support these factories, it plans to further invest INR 150bn in value chain, partnerships, and future technologies, including upstream and downstream industries. The company's last major Capex cycle of INR 5,400bn towards O2C and consumer business was from FY14 to FY19.

Saudi Aramco deal: RIL appointed the chairman of Saudi Aramco, H.E. Yasir Al-Rumayyanto, to its Board as an independent director. This development indicates a step forward for the RIL-Saudi Aramco deal. RIL's chairman indicated that the partnership should be formalised this year. The deal, announced in FY19, valued RIL's O2C business at an EV of USD 75bn. This valuation should increase our SOTP for the stock by INR 285/sh, taking it to INR 2,565.

Jio: (1) With Jio's additional investment in its network during the year and on additional spectrum at the recent spectrum auction, management is confident of the network's capacity to serve additional 200 mn subscribers. (2) Google and Jio jointly developed the "JioPhone Next" smartphone, which should be available from 10 Sept'21. With this lower-priced, fully-featured smartphone supporting the entire suite of applications from both Google and Jio as well as the android play store, Jio expects to successfully target the 300 mn 2G phone users in India. (3) JioFiber has acquired more than 2mn new premises in FY21 and has a cumulative base of 3mn active home and business users. We estimate Jio's EBITDA at INR 491bn for FY23E with an ARPU of INR 157. We value its business at an EV of INR 7,143bn.

Reliance Retail (RR): The chairman indicated that RR is on a hyper growth trajectory and should grow at least 3x in the next 3-5 years. We expect RR's FY23 EBITDA at INR 142bn and value it at an EV of INR 3,802bn.

Change in estimates: We have cut our FY22/23 EPS estimates by 10.0/2.1% to INR 79.6/102.2. This is mainly on account of reduction in the GRM and petchem margin assumptions, offset by a higher crude oil price assumption and incorporation of AR21 in the financials.

Valuation: We use EV/EBITDA to value downstream at March-23E EV/e, retail on peer benchmarked EV/e and E&P, Jio on DCF. The stock is currently trading at 10.9x March-23E EV/EBITDA and 21.0x March-23E EPS. Maintain ADD.

Shares of RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.2104.3 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 2153.35. The total number of shares traded during the day was 835596 in over 45229 trades.

The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 2159.8 and intraday low of 2081.15. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 1760965783.

Source : Equity Bulls

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