HPCL - Q4 FY21 first cut - YES Securities

HPCL's reported 4QFY21 Ebitda at Rs 46.7bn (+41% QoQ) vs a loss in the base quarter. The operating profit stood significantly ahead of street estimates (Rs 25.7bn), but slightly below our estimates (YES: Rs 55bn). The strong YoY and QoQ performance was primarily driven by a strong GRM of USD 8.1/bbl.

Key highlights:

4QFY21 Profitability: EBITDA & PAT at Rs 47bn(+41% QoQ) & INR 30bn (+28% QoQ). On a YoY comparison the 4QFY21 figures are fairly robust as base quarter was significantly weak on account one-time inventory losses

FY21 Profitability: EBITDA and PAT at INR 159bn (+211% YoY) and INR 106bn (+304% YoY); the stupendous YoY growth is primarily on inventory gains in FY21, vs losses in FY20.

GRM: at USD 8.1/bbl, stood broadly in-line with our estimates of (USD 7.55/bbl), aided by inventory gains of USD 4.6/bbl, leading to a GRM of USD 3.86/bbl for FY21 (FY20: 1/bbl)

Domestic Sales: Total Domestic products sales stood at 9.8mmt (+9.3% YoY; -1.9% QoQ), vs industry growth of 2.4% YoY during the quarter. The annual domestic volumes for FY21 therefore stood 7% YoY lower at 35.2mmt

MS reported growth of 10% YoY (industry: 9.7% YoY) and HSD sales growth of 6% YoY (industry: 4.3% YoY), implying market share gain for HPCL

Marketing Margin: Gross marketing margins stood as per our assessment stood at INR 5948per ton, which is largely sequentially flat.

The earnings call to discuss 4QFY21 earnings is scheduled for today @ 2 pm.

Shares of HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.266.45 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 272.65. The total number of shares traded during the day was 196915 in over 3141 trades.

The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 274.95 and intraday low of 265.15. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 52979705.

Source : Equity Bulls

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