ACC Ltd - Q1CY21 Result Update - YES Securities

Result Highlights

- Volume dispatches for the quarter stood at 7.97 MT translating into 21.5% y/y growth vis-à-vis expected growth of 18.7% y/y. RMC volumes continue to recover with normalcy in construction activities across metro cities as volumes came in at 0.83 mcm (down by ~10% y/y and lowest de-growth over last 4 qtrs).

- Cement NSR/te was Rs 4,876 during the quarter witnessing a healthy improvement of 6.5% y/y (vs. est. of +3.5% y/y). Improvement and outperformance in NSR/te on y/y basis was primarily driven by product mix optimization and higher share of premium products.

- Net sales for the company stood at Rs 42.9 bn - a growth of 22.6% y/y and 0.5% above our estimates.

- ACC delivered extremely strong outperformance on EBITDA level with absolute EBITDA for the quarter at Rs 8.6 bn (+22% above our estimates and +20% above consensus estimates) while EBITDA growth stood at 47% y/y. Per ton profitability on blended basis came in at Rs 1,041 (vs. est. of Rs 870) translating into healthy improvement of 22% y/y and 18.4% q/q. Better pricing and lower clinker cost led to strong operational performance for the company.

- Net profit for the company stood at Rs 5.62 bn which grew by 74.2% y/y.

Our View:

- ACC delivered strong set of numbers for Q1CY21 with marginal outperformance on volumes (+21.5% y/y and +2.2% above estimates) and massive outperformance on EBITDA level (+47% y/y) which was 22% above our estimates and 20% above consensus estimates. Better than expected realizations due to higher share of premium products (cement NSR up 6.5% y/y vs est. of +3.5% y/y) and lower clinker cost led to beat on operating performance.

- Going ahead, on the back of sharp surge in energy prices (spot prices at ~Rs 1.4/kcal on blended basis vs consumption cost of Rs 1.1-1.2/kcal during the quarter), we expect P&F costs to rise by ~Rs 170/te sequentially from Q2CY21E onwards. However, strong pricing scenario and operating leverage would offset the surge in costs to some extent translating into range-bound profitability for CY21E vis-à-vis CY20.

- We upgrade our volume estimates by 4.8%/2.4% and EBITDA estimates by 12.1%/11.2% for CY21E/CY22E respectively.

- ACC is speedily ramping up recently commissioned 1.4 MTPA brownfield grinding unit in Jharkhand while company expects to commission Ametha project in Central market by Q2CY22.

- In the medium term, we expect volume/EBITDA CAGR of 13.5%/11.3% over CY20-CY22E. Balance sheet would continue to remain strong despite capex with net cash of Rs 65.4 bn in CY22E vs ~Rs 60 bn in CY20.

- At CMP of Rs 1,877, ACC is trading at EV/EBITDA of 9.5x on CY22E. We continue to assign EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x on CY22E and arrive at TP of Rs 2,028/share with potential upside of 8% (previous TP of Rs 1,845). We have an ADD rating on the stock.

- Key Risk: Further lockdowns across states due to second wave of COVID would hamper volume growth and timelines of capex commissioning.

Shares of ACC LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.1824.45 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 1876.85. The total number of shares traded during the day was 219560 in over 13479 trades.

The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 1982 and intraday low of 1810. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 414358399.

Source : Equity Bulls

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