Rollover Report for October 2020 - November 2020: Angel Broking

Mr. Ruchit Jain (Senior Analyst - Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking):

- Nifty rollovers above 3 month average
- Volatility index to surge going ahead
- FIIs 'Long Short Ratio' plunged below 50%

- "Post some pause in the September series, the benchmark index once again resumed its uptrend seen from the April series. The October series brought back some optimism as we saw a V-shaped recovery in the first half of the series.

As we progressed, Nifty slipped into a consolidation phase to eventually conclude the series tad above 11650 mark. The banking index outperformed the benchmark by clocking a handsome 17% gains series on series. As far as derivatives data are concerned, the up move in Nifty was supported with meaningful longs and in case of BankNifty, it was a blend of long formation and short covering. Rollover in Nifty stood at 77%, which is slightly above the 3 month average of 76%. We saw an open interest addition of 25% MoM and considering the rollover figure, we believe the majority of the positions rolled over in the November series are on the long side. FIIs were net buyers in equities worth Rs. 15408 crores in the October month; however, they preferred lightening up their longs in index futures segment due to the upcoming event of US Election and Bihar Assembly Election. Stronger hands are starting November series with 'Long Short Ratio' below 50%; which is certainly not an encouraging sign. The volatility index is now trading on the higher side of the recent range and we expect it to surge further considering the event lined up. In Nifty options front, 12000 followed by 12500 and 11500 followed by 11000 are attracting traders' attention. At present, 11500-11600 is an immediate support for the market and 12000 remains the sturdy wall."

Source : Equity Bulls

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