Media - BARC rating - Season of non-fiction tent poles - ICICI Securities

Festive season is peak time for advertising as also for non-fiction tent poles with strong fan base such as KBC (Sony TV) and Bigg Boss (Color for Hindi, Star Vijay for Tamil), both of which have started new seasons. Also, IPL-13 has been pushed to Sep-Oct'20 (otherwise played in April). Despite underlying weakness in adspend, IPL-13 has seen growth in ad volumes, which may eat into the ad pie of other genres. Further, rating of listed broadcasters has seen shaken up with Zee Entertainment (ZEEL) holding/improving its GEC viewership market share in Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and Kannada, while it has significantly lost the same in Marathi and Bangla (its leadership markets). Sun TV's viewership share has further dipped in primetime Tamil GEC while Star Vijay widened its gap with Sun TV (thanks to Bigg Boss). Sun TV has lost market share even in Telugu GEC all- day viewership.

- Hindi GEC primetime impressions rise despite IPL-13 on non-fiction tent poles. In week 40 (3-9 Oct'20), Hindi GEC primetime impressions rose 12% vs week 38 (when IPL started) despite IPL-13. This is due to commencement of two non-fiction tent poles: KBC-12 (Sony TV, started on 28th Sep'20) and Bigg Boss-14 (Colors, started on 3rd Oct'20).

- Zee TV's sustained viewership share is impressive. Zee TV's Hindi GEC primetime viewership share has been stable at 18.2% (it was 17.1% in Q4FY20, pre-Covid); in Q3FY20, it was 17.6%. This is impressive considering IPL, KBC and Bigg Boss have huge fan base, and yet Zee TV has been able to maintain its pie of the viewership market. Colors market share expanded by 290bps in week 40 vs Q3FY20 to 22.4%, and Sony TV's is down by 260bps to 11.3%. Star's Hindi GEC primetime viewership share is up 330bps to 23.8% vis-à-vis Q3FY20.

Zee TV to launch three fresh shows during primetime: Ram Pyaare Sirf Humare (to start on 5th Oct'20, every Monday to Friday at 22:30hrs), Apna Time Bhi Ayega (to start on 20th Oct'20, every Monday to Saturday at 19:00hrs), Hamariwali Good News (to start on 20th Oct'20, every Monday to Saturday at 19:30hrs) and a weekend thriller Brahmarakshas-2 (in collaboration with Balaji Telefilms). Can this help Zee TV expand its viewership share in coming weeks?

- Sun TV's Tamil GEC primetime viewership share further hurt from Bigg Boss Tamil Season-4. Tamil GEC primetime impressions for week 40 have grown 4.2% vs week-38. The jump can be attributed to start of Bigg Boss Tamil Season-4 on Star Vijay from 4th Oct'20. This has further helped Star Vijay to increase its viewership share in Tamil GEC primetime by 300bps WoW, and by 960bps vs Q3FY20 to 36.8%. Star Vijay has now become the new #1 broadcaster in Tamil GEC primetime and has widened its lead over Sun TV. Sun TV viewership share stood at 33.2%, down 200bps WoW and down 1,250bps vs Q3FY20. Zee Tamil viewership share has dipped 50bps WoW to 25.7%, but is still better than the 23.4% of Q3FY20.

We have analysed the impact of Bigg Boss Tamil for Sun TV (using Tamil GEC primetime slot-wise data (19:00-23:00hrs) for week-40). Sun TV has lost significant viewership share in the time slot 21:30 to 23:00hrs (when Bigg Boss Tamil is aired). In time slots 21:30-22:00, 22:00-22:30 and 22:30-23:00hrs, Sun TV has lost viewership share of 1,000bps, 1,080bps and 830bps WoW; and 1,780bps, 2,430bps and 2,520bps vs Q3FY20, respectively.

- ZEEL citadel in Marathi and Bangla GEC broken. ZEEL enjoyed massive lead in Marathi GEC all-day viewership (>2x the market share of #2 broadcaster) for long, but Star Pravah has made significant gains post-Covid. Star Pravah Marathi GEC all-day viewership share has improved by 100bps WoW, and 1,910bps vs Q3FY20 to 35.9%. While Zee Marathi has lost 30bps market share WoW and 1,100bps vs Q3FY20 to 39.1%, per media article (link), Star Pravah benefited from launch of four new shows during Aug-Sep'20. Colors Marathi market share has been flat WoW, but dipped 680bps vs Q3FY20 to 16.1%.

ZEEL has suffered bigger damage in Bangla as it dipped to #2 broadcaster rank from a strong #1. Zee Bangla GEC all-day viewership share has been flat WoW, but dipped 950bps vs Q3FY20 to 40.7%. While Star Jalsha's viewership share dipped 100bps WoW, it has improved by 790bps vs Q3FY20 to 43.6%.

- Analysis on other GECs. 1) Telugu all-day GEC viewership share shows Sun TV (Gemini TV) further losing its already low market share at 14.2% in week-40, which is down 135bps WoW, and 530bps vs Q3FY20. Zee Telugu's share improved by 370bps vs Q3FY20 to 26.4% (but down 100bps WoW). Star Maa gained 115bps viewership share vs Q3FY20 to 38.1%. 2) In Kannada all-day GEC, Zee Kannada viewership share has been flat WoW, but down 210bps vs Q3FY20, while that for Sun TV (Udaya TV) has been stable. Star Suvarna has put up a strong show with viewership gain of 860bps (vs Q3FY20) to 25.5%, while Colors (including Colors Super) has lost 790bps (vs Q3FY20) to 23.5%. 3) In Malayalam all-day GEC, Star (Asianet) has lost some viewership share, which now stands at 41.7% (vs 44.8% in Q3FY20), but we don't see any challenger emerging for Star in Malayalam market.

Source : Equity Bulls

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