Rollover Analysis - Sept 20: Selling climax on expiry as markets crumble - YES Securities

September series ended on panic mode for bulls as Nifty nosedived ~3% for the day to close the penultimate session at 10,805 mark, massive unwinding of puts positions seen as short gamma traders were trapped on wrong foot. Nifty/BankNifty lost ~7/13.5% on eoe basis. Highlights for the September series are a) FII's net long index put positioning highest since last six months b) Large cash based selling and unwinding on options positions seen in last week of expiry c) India VIX rallied ~24% on eoe basis d) BankNifty continued its overall under-performance (this year it's down by 36% against Nifty's 11% decline).

Rollovers for Nifty/Bank-Nifty stood at 71% (83lac shrs)/79% (17.4lakh shrs) vs 80% (1.21cr shrs)/78% (13.2lakh shrs) previous month, contrasting trends seen with massive declines seen on Nifty rolls ~32% aggregate base lower while Bank Nifty sharp short open interest carry forward seen ~31% increase in base. Market wide rolls remained higher ~92% vs 3month avg. of ~90%. Sector wise: Short positions carry forward seen on Metals, Banking and Telecom while pharma saw unwinding on long positions.

FII's derivative stats index futures long rolls stood at 49% vs 3month avg. of 75% while index futures short rolls at 63% vs 53% on 3month avg. October series starts with index futures long to short ratio of 0.79x vs previous month of 2.9x at start of series. On options front, Max. call/put OI on Nifty for October monthly series stands at 11,500 call (OI 1.5mn) and 10500 put (OI 3mn) contracts. We expect wild swings to continue while any periodic up-move likely to be capped towards 11200/11350 as supply zone now, volatility remained at higher end.

Source : Equity Bulls

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