View on GDP Q1 data - Suvodeep Rakshit, Vice President & Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities

"Real GDP growth at (-)23.9% in 1QFY21 was much lower than what markets were expecting. The print indicates that the trough in the economy was much lower than expected and the pickup will likely be more elongated. Production side was pulled down by deep contraction in manufacturing, construction, and trade, hotel, transport sectors while the expenditure side was clearly pushed lower by heavy contraction both in consumption and investment. Going forward, given the gradual improvement in activity indicators (remaining well below pre-Covid levels) the growth recovery will be gradual and contracting for all quarters in FY2021. Further, growth recovery will also be hinged to the curb of the Covid spread and removal of even localized lockdowns. The choice for the government will be on whether the consumption or the investment side needs to be pushed. Given the limited fiscal space and the need to stimulate a more durable growth, the growth recovery will be gradual and is likely to continue into 1HFY22."

Source : Equity Bulls

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