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Gujarat State Petronet - Quick recovery back to pre-lockdown level - ICICI Securities
Posted On : 2020-08-08 12:00:30( TIMEZONE : IST )
Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q1FY21 standalone EPS was down just 3% YoY, hit by 13% YoY fall in transmission volumes due to the lockdown. Consolidated Q1 EPS decline was steeper at 33% YoY due to 75% YoY fall in EPS of subsidiary Gujarat Gas (GGL). Low spot LNG prices have boosted demand from power, which limited volume decline in Q1 and is likely to drive growth in the rest of FY21. We keep GSPL's standalone FY21E EPS estimate unchanged. However, we raised GGL's FY21E-FY22E EPS by 41-21% due to quicker-than-expected volume recovery, almost back to pre-lockdown level now, and EBITDA margin in Q1FY21 being at 4-quarter high. This has led to an upgrade in GSPL's FY21-FY22E EPS by 7-5% and target price by 3% to Rs270. We reiterate BUY on GSPL.
- Standalone Q1 EPS fall modest but consolidated EPS fall steeper due to plunge in GGL's EPS: Q1FY21 standalone EPS is down just 3% YoY, hit by 13% YoY fall in transmission volumes to 33.3mmscmd (down 10% QoQ). Transmission tariff was up 5% YoY at Rs1,504/scm. Q1 consolidated recurring EPS fall was steeper at 33% YoY as subsidiary GGL's PAT declined 75% YoY.
- Raise FY21-FY22E EPS and target price; reiterate BUY: GSPL's volumes had recovered to pre-lockdown level in end-Jun'20 as low spot LNG prices boosted demand from power and helped make up for slow recovery in CGD demand. Upside to our GSPL volume estimate of 39mmscmd is not ruled out. Quicker-than-expected recovery in GGL's volumes to almost pre-lockdown level now and 4-quarter high EBITDA margin in Q1 made us raise its FY21-FY2E EPS by 41-21%. It has led to an upgrade in GSPL's FY21-FY22E EPS by 7-5% and target price by 3% to Rs270/share. We reiterate BUY on GSPL.
Shares of GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.207.1 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 198.6. The total number of shares traded during the day was 145470 in over 2056 trades.
The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 211 and intraday low of 204.2. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 30171165.
