Mandar Pitale, Head, Treasury, SBM Bank India view on the USD/INR movement

"On April 9, 2020, USD/INR touched an all-time low of 76.53 (till 1145 hrs.) amidst global risk aversion.

There is a significant deterioration in global economic indicators in the recent past highlighting the adverse impact that COVID-19 is expected to have on the economy. Some of the important economic activity indicators in US market such as Global PMI surveys have fallen to record lows and the US initial jobless claims have reached historic highs.

Global risk aversion is expected to continue as the spread of COVID-19 is continuing in the US and the European region.

In a current scenario witnessing thin trading and wide BID ASK spreads amidst the truncated market hours in the local markets; we expect continuation of risk aversion coupled with lack of trading activities. This is likely to drive the USD/INR pair with an upside bias especially considering that the spread of COVID-19 appears to be increasing in the Indian economy.

USD/INR pair is likely to trade within 76.20 - 76.80 band for next few days with an upward bias."

Source : Equity Bulls

Keywords