Monsoon Tracker: Signs of Weakness - Kotak

Progress of monsoon: normal monsoon

- Till August 30, cumulative rainfall was 3.1% below normal with the weekly rainfall 23.9% above normal. On a regional cumulative basis, most of India was in deficient to normal rainfall with parts of south India and north India remaining deficient (slide 4). The situation has improved dramatically over last week as western/central and south India received very high rainfall. Out of the 36 sub-divisions across India, till date, six have received excess rainfall, 24 have received normal rainfall, and six have received deficient rainfall.

Retail food price momentum: mixed movement in prices

- Average weekly price levels indicate that food prices' movement have been on the upside over last week Vegetable prices were flat while pulses prices fell 0.2%. Cereal prices increased 0.6% while oils and fats prices increased 0.7% over last week in the week ending August 28. We note that this is based on Department of Consumer Affairs daily/weekly data and should not be assumed as the official retail inflation data.

Progress of sowing: acreage marginally lower than last year

- As of August 25, 2017, the total Kharif acreage is 0.6% lower than the same period last year. Rice sowing is 0.8% lower at 35.8 mn hectares. Oilseed acreage is 8.1% lower at 16.4 mn hectares and pulses acreage at 13.6 mn hectares is 3.8% lower than last year's. Coarse cereals' acreage is 2.1% lower at 17.9 mn hectares. Sugarcane and cotton acreages are at 5 mn hectares (4.6 mn hectares last year) and 12 mn hectares (10.3 mn hectares last year) respectively.

Reservoir levels: deep in red

- Reservoir levels remained in deficit compared to long term average levels. Larger river basins of Ganga and Indus are in surplus while Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi, and Narmada are in deficit. Overall, reservoirs and basins are around 16.5% below long term average for week ending August 31.

Source : Equity Bulls

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