Weekly Agri - Commodities Update: Angel Commodities Broking

Views of Mr. Ritesh Kumar Sahu (Fundamental Analyst- Agri Commodities, Angel Commodities Broking):

"During the current week, Mentha oil futures continue to surge for the second consecutive week followed by Guar gum and Turmeric. However, the prices of oil seed complex and coriander ended in negative due to higher supplies and steady demand in the physical market.

The Mentha futures for August Delivery is heading for its highest weekly gain in five and half year to closed above Rs. 1170 per kg. The prices have jumped more than 12.14% during the week to touch two year high. The export demand is driving the prices higher coupled with some irregular monsoon rains in the mentha growing districts of Uttar Pradesh. As per Department of Commerce data, the exports of essential oils of mentha increased by more than 60% to 926 tonnes during first 5 months of 2017 as compared to last years' exports of 578 tonnes. According to industry sources, the export demand will only increase during the next three to four months.

On National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX), guar complex futures traded higher for second consecutive week on reports of good export demand for guar gum coupled with excessive rains in the guar growing areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat, which have damage the crop in large areas. Guar seed prices surged about 4.26% or Rs. 151 to trade at Rs. 3,718 per quintal while guar gum jumped 7.35% or Rs. 542 to trade at Rs. 7,924 per quintal.

As per the data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), India's guar gum exports for first three month of FY 2017-18 i.e. Apr-Jun almost doubled to 145,775 tonnes from 77,174 tonnes a year ago, due to higher demand from the US. Guar seed acreage in Rajasthan increased significantly to 24.1 lakh hectares as compared to 15.9 lakh hectares in the same period last year. Despite higher acreage of guar, there are reports of large scale damage to standing guar crop due to large excess rains during the last week in the major guar sowing districts of Western Rajasthan.

Turmeric futures for August delivery on NCDEX jumps more than 5.9% or Rs. 434 this week to touch 9 months high of Rs. 7,756 per quintal amid lower arrivals, below normal rains in turmeric producing areas of Telangana, low sowing progress and good demand. Market arrivals dropped about 30% in July compared to June. As per Agmarknet data, about 19,218 tonnes arrived in July compared to 27,373 tonnes in previous month. After good start to turmeric sowing in Telangana, the acreage of turmeric as on 2nd August is , down 23.5% to 41,715 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 43,226 hectares. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during May 2017 was down 18% to 11,204 tonnes on year but the exports during first five months in 2017 is 54,058 tonnes, up 22% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.

In the current week, Jeera futures closed higher to register its first weekly gains after closing lower in two previous weeks. On NCDEX, it recovers from its low of Rs. 18,760 to currently trade at Rs.19,400 per quintal. This jump is due to good export and improving physical demand on reports lower arrivals in Gujarat due to heavy rains. As per the data release by government, Jeera exports during first five months in 2017 is 5,039 tonnes, up 9.7% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. Moreover, as per Agmarknet, jeera arrival during in July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared to June arrival data. In June, arrival record at 8,072 tonnes.

MCX Cotton for October delivery is heading for second consecutive weekly rise of 0.70% or Rs. 130 to trade at Rs. 18,570 per bale on reports of damage of cotton crop in Gujarat due to heavy rains. Moreover, incidents of pink bollworm attacks have been reported in many parts of key cotton growing areas in south India and Gujarat. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 111.2 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 20% compared to last year acreage of 92.3 lakh ha for same period.

Soybean and rmseed futures on NCDEX were traded lower this week tracing weak international prices for edible and oilseeds. Currently, market participants liquidate their long positions on anticipation of steady demand for soybean and rmseed in coming weeks due to sufficient supplies of edible oil in the country.

Edible oil futures - Soy oil and Crude Palmoil (CPO) - have moved lower this week on on strong rupees and weak physical demand from the stockists. Stronger rupees make imports cheaper for the imports. Earlier, Government has increased soy oil tariff rates for the next fortnight but cut for palm oils."

Source : Equity Bulls

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