In line with expectations of a further moderation in CPI inflation, the combined (rural + urban) inflation for July 2013 moderated to 9.6% from 9.9% in June 2013. Inflation in food articles in the CPI (accounting for almost 50% weightage in the index) has moderated as expected to 11% from 11.7% in the previous month. Fuel inflation also decelerated to 8.4% during July 2013 as against 8.6% in the previous month. Core (non-food, non-fuel) CPI inflation has also positively trended down to 8.0% in as against a slightly higher 8.2% in the previous month. Going ahead, we are positive on the trajectory for food inflation owing to the decent rabi production, pick-up in sowing of kharif crops and reasonable MSP hikes announced by the government for the kharif crops and this is likely to keep headline CPI inflation in check.