India:Q4 GDP in line with expectation; FY2014 poised for a recovery - ICICI Bank Treasury Research

- GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY2013 and hence for the year as a whole came in at 4.8% YoY and 5% YoY respectively, which were in line with expectations. Q3 headline print was revised upward to 4.7% YoY

- Manufacturing and construction growth were lower than our expectations but we expect industrial production to recover going ahead

- Policy support from the Government and RBI will help provide some fillip to capex recovery in the coming quarters

- The outturn for services was relatively better in Q4 than it has been for the previous three quarters. Upward revisions in trade data are encouraging

- Government spending disappointed in Q4 but was in line for the year's expectation given fiscal deficit goals. This is likely to pick up this fiscal in the run up to the elections

- Consumption growth remains on an even keel and recovery expected on lower inflation, higher income levels and policy support

- The investment cycle may take some more time to revive fully; Policy support from the Government and the RBI will help to fortify business sentiment going ahead

- The growth cycle in the country has clearly bottomed out and we seem well poised for a recovery although this is likely to be driven more by consumption at the outset rather than investment

Source : Equity Bulls

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