P&G's recent indication of a toothpaste (Oral-B brand) launch in India this quarter has rekindled discussions on the potential impact on Colgate and other large players (HUVR, Dabur, GSK) in the toothpaste market in India. Past experience of P&G entering a new category (detergents) in India and a look at how P&G's toothpaste launch did in Brazil suggest that - (1) P&G is more likely than not to be extremely aggressive - this would mean increase in adspends for all players, and (2) the most-impacted (in terms of market share loss) players are likely to be ones with low brand equity - we would worry more about HUVR than Colgate on this front.
Retain SELL on Colgate.