We have updated our earnings model for RIL's FY2013 annual report. Our subdued outlook on global refining cycle and uncertainty on KG D-6 volumes in the medium term constrain us from taking a more positive view on the stock despite a moderate upside (7% CAGR) to three-year forward fair value of Rs. 1,020, which factors in core business expansions.
We retain REDUCE rating on RIL stock with a revised 12-month forward SOTP-based TP of Rs. 855 (Rs. 840 previously).