- We expect Radico to post ~15% revenue growth to INR3.25b in 4QFY13E, led by 7% volume growth.
- We expect the premium segment to grow at a faster pace, aided by uptrading. Andhra Pradesh price hikes (10%) would fully reflect in 4QFY13E.
- Expect margin expansion of 60bp to 14.8%, leading to 55% PAT growth (low base).
- Maharashtra government recently hiked excise duty by 25% for IMFL. However, Radico has a negligible 2% revenue coming from the state.
- The stock trades at 14.8x FY14E and 10.9x FY15E EPS. Buy.