UltraTech Cement - March 2013 Results Preview - Motilal Oswal

- Cement volumes are estimated to be flat YoY (+15% QoQ) at 11.5mt. Realizations are estimated to increase by 4.9% QoQ (+9.8% YoY) to INR4,274/ton. Its supplementary business of white cement and RMC are estimated to remain flat.

- Realizations to be partially offset by cost push, resulting in an impact on EBITDA/ton of INR1,165/ton (+INR149/ton QoQ, +INR84/ton YoY). EBITDA margin decline of 0.3pp YoY (+2.3pp QoQ) to 23.4%.

- EBITDA estimated to grow 7% YoY (+32% QoQ) to INR13.5b, translating into PAT decline of ~2% YoY (+42% QoQ) to INR8.5b.

- We downgrade EPS estimates for FY13E/FY14E/15E by 4.5%/8.3%/7.9% to INR101/INR116/INR140 respectively.

- The stock trades at 13.2x FY15E EPS, 7.4x FY15E EV/EBITDA and USD147/ton. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR2,242 (9x FY15E EV/EBITDA).

Source : Equity Bulls

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