MRPL - March 2013 Results Preview - Motilal Oswal

- We expect MRPL to report 4QFY13E PAT of INR7.1b (v/s INR6b in 4QFY12 and loss of INR3.6b in 3QFY13).

- EBITDA is expected at INR6.8b (v/s INR7.8b in 4QFY12 and a loss of INR0.8b in 3QFY13). Regional benchmark Reuters Singapore GRM is up 37% QoQ to USD8.7/bbl from USD6.5/bbl due to a decline in fuel oil cracks.

- On the operational front, we expect refinery throughput at 3.8mmt.

- Medium term GRM outlook continues to be subdued due to over capacity and sluggish global demand. Expect GRM to be volatile (in spurts) due to occasional bunching up of shutdowns.

- For MRPL, we model in GRM of USD3.1/bbl for FY13E and USD7/bbl for FY14E. The stock trades at FY15E P/E of 5.7x and EV/EBITDA of 3.4x. Maintain Neutral.

Source : Equity Bulls

Keywords