Maintain 'buy' on Cummins India - TP hiked to Rs.570 - Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services

- Buy rating is maintained on Cummins India with an increased target price of Rs.570, as against the earlier target price of Rs.495. The stock is currently hovering around Rs.500.

- The company has been fairing well and hence, expected earnings for FY13 is hiked by 8.8% and by 9.3% for FY14.

- Increase in earnings estimates despite sales cuts and fall in export is due to expanding margins on the back of increased prices, lower raw material costs, cost cutting and cash conservation measures to tide over a weak demand environment.

- The company is impressively weathering a slowdown in demand by improving productivity and cutting costs. Recoveries in export markets and the domestic capex cycle could lead to increased sales and strong profit growth on the bak of operating leverage.

- TP of Rs.570 is based on 20 P/E of FY14 expected EPS. 20 P/E is the median of three year historical P/E.

- Risks to the target price include delays in the revival of the capex cycle and the export market, a drop in demand for power gensets, pricing pressures from increased competition and the inability to pass through increased raw material costs.

- Recently, the stock price has come under pressure owing to concerns that the Indian government's move to raise diesel prices would hurt demand for diesel gensets.

- However, it seems that customers have no choice but to go in for backup diesel power gensets to tide over persistent power shortages.

- UPS inverters can provide back-up power for only four hours after which they need charging for 12 hours. Renewable sources are not reliable for use as back up. Imported gas may also look unviable for backup applications.

Source : Equity Bulls

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