Rollover Analysis - December 2012 Expiry - Way2Wealth

After late rally in November series, December proved as a quite dull expiry where markets consolidated for most part of the month in narrow band of 120-140 points band with no clear direction. December series started on bullish note and on higher side nifty test 6000 levels but failed to sustain at higher levels and saw profit booking from those level that dragged nifty below 5900 levels. Profit booking was seen in technology, oil&gas, realty, capital goods and cement sector that kept indices under pressure and finally nifty closed around 5874 levels up by almost 0.80% on expiry basis.

Rollovers in Nifty from December series to January series were in line with expectation and almost 52-55%% positions got rolled in current series as compared to 54% last month. January series started with low open interest positions as compared to last month. Current series started with almost 16.46 million shares (329311 contracts) as compared to 17.88 million shares (357723 contracts) last month. However, in last few trading session cost of carry increased significantly to 1.03% (as compared to 0.76% last month) clearly indicate that players are bullish on indices and they are rolling there long positions in January series in expectation of positive movement in markets from current levels.

Market wide rollovers were also in line with expectation and almost 76% positions got rolled in January series as compared to 75% last month. Most of the sectors in current series have witness long rollovers and especially high beta sectors like banking, realty, metal and infrastructure and a further rally in these sectors can't be ruled out from current levels.

Source : Equity Bulls

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