Lupin - Diwali 2012 Pick - Angel Broking

Lupin is one of the highest filers of ANDAs in the Indian pharmaceuticals industry. As of FY2012, the company's cumulative filings stood at 173, of which 64 have been approved. Lupin plans to launch 20 products in the US in FY2013 and another 80 products over the next three years, including nine exclusives.

In the oral contraceptive (OC) segment, Lupin plans to launch around 10 ANDA's in FY2013. As per management, the OC segment is expected to contribute US$100mn to the company's top line over the next 2-3 years.

Lupin continues to make strides in the Indian market. Currently, Lupin ranks No.5, climbing up from being No.11 six years ago. Lupin has been the fastest growing company among the top five companies in the domestic formulation space, registering a strong CAGR of 20% over the last three years. For FY2013 and FY2014, management has reinforced ~20% growth in the Indian market.

Management has given a revenue guidance of US$3bn by FY2013-14. We expect Lupin's net sales to post a 19.3% CAGR to Rs.10,082cr and earnings to report a 26.5% CAGR to Rs.31.1/share over FY2012-14E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs.652.

Source : Equity Bulls

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