Brent was unchanged in September, averaging USD114/bbl, as easing liquidity and geopolitical tensions offset high supplies. INR appreciated 2% versus USD led by a slew of reforms starting with fuel price hike. Indian complex GRMs and Singapore GRMs fell USD0.9/bbl and USD2.4/bbl, respectively, after US and Venezuela refineries resumed post temporary shutdowns.
Fuel under-recoveries rose MoM due to inventory priced at higher product cracks. On exit rates, under-recoveries in petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene are INR0.9/lt, INR9.8/lt, INR315/cyl and INR34.4/lt, respectively.
Top Picks: Large cap-RIL, BPCL; Mid cap-IGL and PLNG.