Research

Bharat Forge - 1QFY2013 Result Update - Angel Broking



Posted On : 2012-08-17 23:28:54( TIMEZONE : IST )

Bharat Forge - 1QFY2013 Result Update - Angel Broking

Subdued standalone performance: Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported subdued results for 1QFY2013 due to weak demand in the domestic automotive market (domestic revenues down 5.6% yoy led by weakness in the domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle [MHCV] sales) and sharp increase in interest expense. The top-line posted an in-line growth of 9.2% yoy (down 4.2% qoq) to Rs.936cr driven by a 30.7% yoy (8.9% qoq) increase in exports revenue on the back of rupee depreciation and 16.4% yoy increase in non-automotive segment revenue (~37% of standalone revenues). The EBITDA margin improved 84bp yoy (down 57bp qoq) to 25.1% driven by a favorable product mix led by an increasing proportion of machining component (~52%) in the product-mix. The net profit registered a lower-than-expected growth of 8% yoy (down 16.2% qoq) to Rs.105cr. While the interest cost was up 75.6% yoy (59% qoq) due to forex loss of Rs.14.5cr; other income jumped 72.7% yoy (93% qoq) benefitting from forex gain of Rs.4.7cr.

China operations continue to drag down consolidated results: BHFC's consolidated top-line grew by 4.7% yoy (down 2.7% qoq) to Rs.1,643cr primarily due to poor performance by the China joint venture (JV). The China JV witnessed deterioration in performance on the back of slowdown in commercial vehicle (CV) sales in China which led to lower capacity utilization. The EBITDA margin improved 94bp yoy (down 61bp qoq) to 16.7%. The China operations reported a loss of Rs.11.8cr at the PBT level as against a profit of Rs.3.5cr in 1QFY2012.

Outlook and valuation: We expect BHFC to register healthy revenue CAGR of 12.8% over FY2012-14E led by strong momentum in exports and non-auto segments. Further, margins are expected to remain stable, led by rationalization of overseas capacities and moderating raw-material prices, leading to a strong 20.5% net profit CAGR over the same period. At Rs.302, BHFC is trading at 12.1x FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs.351, valuing it at 14x FY2014E earnings.

Source : Equity Bulls

Keywords