- Downgrade to In-Line. Delay in auctions implies an extended period of pressure on mobile profitability. While our long-term thesis of an imminent shake-up in the sector and/or tariff hikes stays, the wait for realising these gains is getting longer (12-15 months vs. 6-9 months).
- In the interim, 1Q signifies sustained impact of competition and accelerated data network rollout on mobile profitability.
- We reduce FY13-14E EBITDA estimates by ~7% and EPS by 30-34% on account of (i) lower India mobile revenue/EBITDA and (ii) slight moderation in Africa.
- We lower PT to Rs300 (from Rs380), which includes higher regulatory impact of Rs49 (Rs32 assumed earlier).