Mutual Funds Commodities Research Tax Planning IPO Our Team Contact Us  
Google
Web www.equitybulls.com
Research

| More

Oil and Gas - Q2FY22 Results Preview Report - HDFC Securities

Posted On: 2021-10-23 09:01:03 (Time Zone: IST)


Mr. Harshad Katkar, Institutional Research Analyst, HDFC Securities and Mr. Nilesh Ghuge, Institutional Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

  • Revenue for the companies in our coverage universe is estimated to increase by ~14% QoQ and ~53% YoY, owing to improvement in demand with unlock post the second wave of COVID-19, improvement in GRMs and oil and gas realisation. We expect higher marketing sales volumes for OMCs, higher gas volumes (YoY) for CGD companies except GUJGA, and improvement in realisation for upstream companies. In turn, we expect EBITDA for oil and gas companies under our coverage to increase ~8% QoQ and ~30% YoY in Q2FY22.
  • OMCs: We expect core GRM of USD 2.9/5.6/3.8bbl for IOCL/HPCL/BPCL, down from USD -0.8/2.8/1.5bbl in Q2FY21, owing to improvement in cracks YoY from gasoline, gasoil, naphtha and ATF, offsetting negative spreads of FO and LPG. Demand has improved, post unlock, with (1) marketing volumes increasing 9-14% YoY and (2) 12-24% YoY increase in refining throughput, partially offset by planned shutdown undertaken by HPCL. The average Brent price is up ~7% QoQ and ~72% YoY to USD 73.3/bbl in Q2. Marketing margins are up ~13-15% QoQ, owing to margin improvement for diesel and petrol.
  • RIL: We expect RIL's consolidated EBITDA to increase by 14% QoQ to INR 266bn. Oil-to-chemicals (O2C) EBITDA/tonne of crude processed is estimated to increase 22% QoQ, owing to improvement in gasoil cracks by 28% YoY and steady petchem margins. We expect EBITDA to increase by 25% YoY to INR24.8bn from its retail segment. We have estimated ~15mn subscriber addition in Q2 and ARPU of INR141.6, up 2.3% QoQ.
  • Upstream players: We expect 51% and 55% improvement in revenue of ONGC and OIL respectively, owing to (1) 72% YoY jump in crude oil prices and (2) higher gas volumes YoY for OIL and ONGC.
  • CGD: The unlock has steadily improved, post the second wave. This should result in bounce-back of CNG volumes for IGL and MGL. We expect GUJGA total volumes to be a bit subdued on rising LNG price affecting industrial demand. Gas cost has increased up to 5% QoQ, we expect this to result margins to dampen by 5-9% QoQ on higher gas cost, as it has not been completely passed through. We expect IGL and MGL to register a volume increase ~18-22% QoQ in Q2, while expect GUJGA volumes to be down 3% QoQ. We expect EBITDA per unit margin of INR 7.5/12.6/7.4/scm for IGL/MGL/GGL.
  • PLNG/GAIL/GSPL: We expect PLNG's revenue to increase 77% YoY to INR 110bn and gross margin to decrease by 4% QoQ to INR 11.9bn, given 95% increase in raw material cost and 14% decrease in total volumes to 218tbtu. We expect GAIL to report an 8% jump in EBITDA sequentially, owing to profitability in gas trading segment and higher transmission volume offsetting lower volumes in petchem. GSPL's average volume is expected to decline by 2% QoQ to 36mmscmd due to higher gas cost impacting volumes in power sector. We estimate GSPL's EBITDA at INR3.6bn and PAT at INR 2.5bn.


Click here to send ur comments or to feedback@equitybulls.com

Disclaimer:The article above is a gist / extract of the original report prepared by the research firm / brokerage firm. This article is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This article is meant for general information only. www.equitybulls.com, its employees or owners or the research firms, its employees or owners won't be responsible for any liability that may arise from information, errors or omissions in these articles. www.equitybulls.com or its employees or owners / the research firms or its employees or clients or owners may from time to time hold positions in securities referred in this article. For detailed research reports, please contact the concerned research firm directly.





Other Headlines:

Mutual Fund Review - November, 2021 - ICICI Direct

Maintain SELL on Asian Paints - Demand rebound strong; profitability cut steeper - HDFC Securities

Mphasis - 2QFY22 Result Update - Growth Resiliency Continues; Raise Target Price - Reliance Research

Gateway Distriparks - Rail continues to drive earnings - ICICI Securities

JSW Steel - Start of EBITDA contraction cycle - ICICI Securities

Shoppers Stop - Beneficiary of faster than expected recovery - ICICI Securities

Asian Paints - Q2FY22 Result Update - ICICI Securities

TVS Motor Company - EVs now at the center of its global ambitions - ICICI Securities

Havells India - Strong demand across regions; profitability likely to be muted in H2FY22 - ICICI Securities

Tata Communications - Rising visibility on revenue growth - ICICI Securities

Angel Broking - Business momentum intact for strong earnings growth - ICICI Securities

Q2FY22 Result Update - Rallis India - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Navin Fluorine - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Shoppers Stop - ICICI Direct

Company Update - Mastek Ltd - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - JSW Steel - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - VST Industries - ICICI Direct

HDFC Life Insurance - Q2FY22 First Cut - ICICI Direct

Federal Bank - Q2FY22 First Cut - ICICI Direct

Company Update - Taj GVK Hotels - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Indian Hotels - ICICI Direct

Inox Leisure - Q2FY22 First Cut - ICICI Direct

Supreme Industries - Q2FY22 First Cut - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Biocon Ltd - ICICI Direct

PVR Ltd - Q2FY22 First Cut - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Asian Paints - ICICI Direct

Quant Pick - RBL Bank - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - IIFL Securities - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Company Update - Bank of Baroda - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Syngene International - ICICI Direct

Company Update - Sonata Software - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Gateway Distriparks - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Tata Communications - ICICI Direct

Q2FY22 Result Update - Havells India - ICICI Direct

Mphasis - 2QFY22 Result Update - Growth Resiliency Continues; Raise Target Price - Reliance Research

Maintain ADD on Havells India - Outperformance continues; miss on margin - HDFC Securities

Indraprastha Gas - Company Update - EV vs CNG; TCO Economics Favour CNG - Reliance Research

FinTech Playbook - Discount Brokers - 'Nudging' the long tail of standalone brokers - HDFC Securities

Tata Communication - Revenue growth remains muted - YES Securities

Havells India Ltd - Q2FY22 Result Update - YES Securities

ICICI Lombard General Insurance - Q2FY22 Result Update - YES Securities

Syngene International Ltd - Lack of near term triggers - YES Securities

Mphasis - Q2FY22 First Cut - YES Securities

IndiaMART InterMESH - Q2FY22 First Cut - YES Securities

Sterlite Technologies - Q2FY22 First Cut - YES Securities

Can Fin Homes - Q2FY22 First Cut - YES Securities

Havells India - 2QFY22 Result Update - Strong Revenue Growth; Higher Commodity Prices Impact Earnings - Reliance Research

TVS Motor - 2QFY22 Result Update - Healthy Exports Coupled with New Launches to Aid Higher Margins - Reliance Research

Maintain SELL on Jubilant FoodWorks - No big fireworks unlike in other discretionary names - HDFC Securities

Sonata Software - Strong execution - HDFC Securities


Website Created & Maintained by : Chennai Scripts
West Mambalam, Chennai - 600 033,
Tamil Nadu, India

disclaimer copyright © 2005 - 2020