Post Market views - July 23, 2021 - Mr. Binod Modi, Head Strategy at Reliance Securities
(Time Zone: UTC)
Domestic traded in rangebound but extended gains moderately on sustained rebound in financials. Barring auto index, most key sectoral indices traded in green. Improved prospects of credit growth rebound with visible pickup in economy and comfortable valuations bode well for financials. However, it was not a broad-based rally as midcap and smallcap indices lagged as profit booking as visible in many counters. Notably, benchmark Nifty contracted ~0.4% during the week, while investors' wealth grew modestly by ~Rs1 trillion. ICICI Bank, Wipro, ITC and SBI Life were among top Nifty gainers, while Tata Motors, Grasim, L&T and Adani Ports were laggards.
A sharp recovery in global markets along with buying on dips propelled domestic equites to see sharp rebound in last two days. However, concerns over global growth due to recent rise in delta variant Coronavirus cases in different parts of the world continues to persist. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that underlying strength of domestic market remains intact and therefore any meaningful correction in the market should be taken as an opportunity to get in quality stocks. Visible improvement in key economic data in June and satisfactory ramp-up in vaccination indicate healthy corporate earnings in subsequent quarters. Additionally, dovish remark of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in his last week's testimony despite surge in inflation and soft bond yield in the USA in recent days offer comfort to global equities including India. In our view, spread of delta plus variant globally could remain as a near risk for markets. Further, expectations of sustained soft monetary policy stance of the RBI despite higher inflation and recent sharp drop in crude prices augur well for equities in India. In our view, progress of monsoon, 1QFY22E corporate earnings and COVID-19 positivity rates will be in focus in the near term. Further, higher government's capex and revival in industrials' capex should aid economic recovery. Investors must focus on quality stocks with robust earnings visibility and margins of safety. In our view, sectors considered to be major beneficiaries of capex revival, are likely to outperform in FY22E.