Post Market views - July 12, 2021 - Mr. Binod Modi, Head Strategy at Reliance Securities
(Time Zone: UTC)
Benchmark indices erased gains towards the final session of the day as profit booking in IT, metals and financial services dragged markets. Baring realty, auto and select banks, most key sectoral indices traded in red. However, realty and cement stocks witnessed strong rebound today as ongoing revival in real estate market attracted investors' attention. Notably, midcap and smallcap stocks continued to outperform as improved prospects of earnings recovery augurs well for them. Volatility index hardened ~3% today. UltraTech Cement, Grasim, Shree Cement and JSW Steel were among top Nifty gainers, while BPCL, Adani Ports, HDFC and Bajaj Auto were laggards.
Notably, benchmark Nifty appears to be consolidating in the range of 15,600-15,900. While visible improvement in business momentum with ease of business curbs by states started offering comfort, recent uptick in daily caseload and increasing positivity rates could be a near term risk. However, we continue to believe that any meaningful correction in the market should be taken as an opportunity to get in quality stocks. Strong data from core sector output for May, strong rise in import-export business momentum in June and visible traction in overall economic activities in June indicate healthy corporate earnings for 1QFY22E despite second wave of COVID-19. Further, announcement of slew of measures by Finance Ministry to spur economic activities augurs well. In our view, progress of monsoon, 1QFY22E corporate earnings and COVID-19 positivity rates will be in focus in the near term. Further, higher government's capex and revival in industrials' capex should aid economic recovery. Additionally, minutes of FOMC meeting last week showed that Federal Reserve's substantial progress target for economic recovery has not met yet. Therefore, scaling back of ultra-accommodative policy stance does not look to be imminent in the medium term, which offers comfort to global equities. In our view, higher crude prices and strengthening dollar index could be a near risk for markets. However, underlying strength of domestic markets remains intact and investors must focus on quality stocks with robust earnings visibility and margins of safety. In our view, sectors considered to be major beneficiaries of capex revival are likely to outperform in FY22E.