Views of Mr. Ritesh Kumar Sahu (Fundamental Analyst- Agri Commodities, Angel Commodities Broking):
"During the current week, Cardamom, Crude Palm oil, Jeera and Chana trade on positive note while guar complex, cotton and coriander trade lower.
Cardamom futures is heading for its highest weekly gain in 5 months as new season arrivals have been limited affected by the dry weather in the cardamom growing regions of Kerala. Good demands for the domestic market as well as for exports are driving the prices higher. During the current week the total arrivals stood at 441 tonnes, which is lower by 8% compared to last week arrivals and the sales were at 434 tonnes. The arrivals are declined for the third consecutive week while the demand is increasing. The exports of cardamom during the first quarter of FY 2017/18 increase by 12.5% to 1,403 tonnes compared to last years' 1,247 tonnes.
MCX CPO jumped 3.3 % in the current week tracking firm international prices in Malaysia coupled with weak rupees and good demand in the physical market. The prices were also supported due to increase in tariff value for Crude palm oil and higher import duty. Recently government raised import duty on crude palm oil to 15% from 7.5%, and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15% but higher stocks in the country is having bearish impact. According to SEA release, during November-August period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes from 46.70 lakh tonnes during the same period of the previous oil year.
Among spices, NCDEX Jeera heading for second weekly due to fresh buying after seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. NCDEX Oct delivery contract increase about 2% or Rs. 355 per quintal to close at Rs. 19,685. Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating a diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. The arrivals have been lower during the first 10 days of September at 1,980 tonnes compared to 3,271 tonnes in August for same period. India's jeera exports in June surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. However, as per government data, Jeera exports during first quarter in FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jun) is 41,707 tonnes, down 10.8% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
Turmeric futures for October delivery on NCDEX closed lower for the week due to balanced demand and supplies coupled with improved rains in Turmeric growing areas during week ending 6th September. As per the data release by government, the exports during the first quarter of FY 2017/18 is down 10% to 33,323 tonnes, compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
The production estimate of turmeric for 2016/17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance estimate higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015/16.
The most active October delivery contract of Guar complex on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX), plunged to six weeks low on reports of improved weather conditions in guar producing districts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. During the current week, October guar seed on NCDEX plunge Rs. 208 or 5.37%, to trade at Rs. 3,668 per quintal, while guar gum fall Rs. 725 or 8.2% to trade near Rs. 8,110 per quintal. Moreover, market participants are expecting new season arrivals in less than a months' time and also are worry about the export prospects for the guar gum in coming months to the US as Crude oil production likely to be affected due to recent Hurricanes.
Guar area in Rajasthan is forecast at 31.7 lakh hectares, down 10 % compared to last year area of 35.3 lakh hectares. While in Gujarat, the guar acreage forecasted down by 10% as on 11th Sep to 1.98 lakh hectares as compared to last year acreage. According to market sources, acreage in Haryana is lower as farmers have shifted to cotton due to better remuneration. Moreover, the exports of guar gum for the first quarter of 2017/18 is higher by 69.7% at 1.78 lakh tonnes compared to 1.05 lakh tonnes last year.
MCX Cotton for October delivery is heading for first weekly loss after three consecutive second consecutive weekly gains weak international prices and higher acreage in the country. Moreover, arrival of new season cotton also pressurizes prices. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, The area under cotton across the country was at 121 lakh ha as on last week, up nearly 19% on year. The cotton acreage is higher this year; industry expects cotton output to be sufficient. The USDA has raised its production estimate for India's 2017-18 (Aug-Jul) cotton crop to 30.0 mln bales (1 US bale = 480 pound) from 29.0 mln bales projected in August."